Nursing numbers could be slashed over the next decade - RCN
Published: 18 July 2011
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) today warned that the NHS in England could lose nearly 100,000 nurses over the next ten years, with potentially disastrous consequences for patient care.
An independent report commissioned by the RCN has examined eight possible scenarios for the number of NHS nurses in England during the next ten years, taking into account training places for nurses and midwives, rates of retirement and overseas recruitment. It found that in the worst case scenario, 28 per cent of the nursing workforce (99,000 out of a current workforce of 352,104 registered nurses) could be lost during the next ten years.
The research, led by Professor James Buchan from Queen Margaret University, highlights the vulnerability of NHS nurse staffing numbers to policy changes, for example, the reduction in the number of nurse training places and the possibility of many nurses taking early retirement due to changes to their pension. Even a small percentage change in the number of training places or nurses taking retirement is likely to have a serious long term effect on nursing numbers and ultimately patient care. The impact of any such policy change on nursing staff numbers will be magnified by the current cuts in nursing posts which underlines the danger of not addressing job cuts now.
The RCN is calling for the Department of Health to set out a clear strategy for the NHS workforce over the next ten years and for a renewed emphasis on staffing levels. Through its ‘Frontline First’ campaign, the RCN has already identified almost 40,000 posts that are earmarked to be lost over the next three years across the NHS in the UK.
In particular, an analysis of 21 Trusts, where nearly 10,000 posts are to be cut, showed that more than half (54 per cent) were frontline clinical posts and nursing posts accounted for almost half (46 per cent) of workforce cuts. If Trusts continue to shed frontline clinical posts at this rate, then this worst case scenario could be realised.
RCN Chief Executive & General Secretary Dr Peter Carter said: “This report highlights what the truly shocking scale of losses could be to the nursing workforce in England over the next 10 years. A loss of more than a quarter of the nursing workforce would be hugely damaging to patient care.
“The nursing workforce has grown in recent years, but only just enough to keep up with rising demands on health care. Urgent and immediate action is now needed to prevent a return to the chronic shortages of the early 1990s. One clear first step must be to stabilise the numbers of registered nurses and reverse decisions to cut student nursing places by 10 percent by 2012. Getting future education and training arrangements right is absolutely critical.”
Three years ago, the RCN warned in a previous report that the future nursing workforce depended on policy and workforce planning decisions. However, since that time the loss of clinical and nursing posts has accelerated.
A report published last year by the RCN highlighted evidence proving a link between staffing levels and patient outcomes, with two fifths of nurses in the UK reporting that care is compromised at least once a week due to short staffing. A 2006 study by Professor Anne Marie Rafferty revealed a 26 per cent increase in mortality rates for hospitals with the worst staffing levels.
Dr Carter added: “We are concerned that many trusts are making staffing cuts to save money. However, it is critical to patient safety that changes to staffing levels and skill mix are only made using evidence in line with patient needs rather than as a knee-jerk response to financial pressures.”
Ends
Notes for Editors
1. The NHS workforce census in September 2010 recorded the current workforce at 352,104 for registered nurses, midwives and health visitors.
2. The report is taken from the forthcoming RCN Labour Market Review 2011, which will be published later this year.
3. For further information, interviews or illustrations please contact the RCN Media Office on 0207 647 3633, press.office@rcn.org.uk or visit http://www.rcn.org.uk/newsevents/media
4. The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) is the voice of nursing across the UK and is the largest professional union of nursing staff in the world. The RCN promotes the interest of nurses and patients on a wide range of issues and helps shape healthcare policy by working closely with the UK Government and other national and international institutions, trade unions, professional bodies and voluntary organisation.