Organisations representing over a million NHS staff have called on the government to put the brakes on its upcoming workforce plan for the health service, over concerns it fails to address unsafe conditions and rising demand, and overstates the benefits of AI without enough evidence or safeguards.
In a letter to the new Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, James Murray, a group of health professional bodies and trade unions warned that persistent shortages, growing demand, rising complexity and an ageing population are creating increasingly unsafe and unsustainable conditions in the NHS, and expressed worry that the current direction of the NHS 10 Year Workforce Plan “falls significantly short of the scale of workforce growth required to meet patient need”.
The Royal College of Nursing, British Medical Association, Society for Acute Medicine, Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Queen’s Institute of Community Nursing and Unite also said they understand the plan will rely on “assumptions about the role of AI and digital technology” that “risk overstating near term productivity gains without sufficient evidence or safeguards”.
The group, which says little meaningful engagement in the development of the plan has taken place, is now calling for it to be paused to enable more detailed involvement with organisations representing healthcare workers.
It comes after an intervention by the RCN last month revealed a “deadly mix” of collapsing growth in the nursing workforce and increasingly complex patient needs are leaving staff struggling to keep people safe, with a quarter of nursing staff saying numbers were so low there was a “high risk” of harm on their most recent shift.
Further analysis of NHS data by the College shows that the year to March 2026 had the lowest annual growth in overall NHS staff numbers in thirteen years. Meanwhile, the number of people in England aged 75 and over, who are some of the most common users of NHS services, is set to increase by 1.1 million over the next ten years, a 19% rise, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The letter goes on to warn that the plan could overestimate how much the government’s projected shift to the community will reduce demand for services elsewhere and therefore risks underestimating the need for workforce growth across all sectors.
Earlier in May, the Financial Times reported the health secretary was planning to dramatically scale back on workforce growth and instead use AI to help medical professionals treat patients.
In 2023, the nursing workforce was scheduled to increase by 170,000-190,000 over the following decade to meet rising patient demand. These proposals would see that figure reduced to 50,000 nurses.
Commenting on the joint letter, RCN General Secretary and Chief Executive, Professor Nicola Ranger, said:
“Rising demand, ever more complex need and an ageing population are causing chaos in the NHS, with hospitals facing overwhelming pressure and staff increasingly struggling to keep patients safe. Evidence-based, fully funded workforce planning that ensures there are the right number of vital, life-saving staff in place couldn’t be more needed. But we are increasingly concerned the upcoming plan will not reflect the daily reality that staff face and will instead erroneously rely on AI and digital technologies to boost productivity and avoid the need for investment in the workforce. This would be a disaster for patients.
“By joining forces with other colleagues across the health service in demanding a pause in the publication of the workforce plan, we have proven there is unity across the health service in the belief that staffing levels must rise appropriately to meet patient demand. Digital technologies such as AI, while likely valuable in improving administrative efficiency and in diagnosing some conditions, can never replace the care and expertise that nurses and other clinical professionals provide. We, the people who staff the health service, are the only way to keep patients safe.
“The newly appointed Secretary of State has a pivotal opportunity to apply the brakes and think again. More detailed and meaningful engagement with the expert organisations and vital NHS staff who are standing ready to make this plan a success, will be critical for ensuring the safety of patients for generations to come.”
Ends
Notes to editors
Dear Secretary of State,
We are writing as a group of six health and care organisations regarding the forthcoming ten-year workforce plan. While we welcome the government’s commitment to long-term workforce planning, we are increasingly concerned that the plan may not be based on the correct assumptions and solutions required for successful system transformation and delivery.
A credible, fully costed, long-term workforce strategy is essential to recovery and reform. We are therefore concerned that the current direction falls significantly short of the scale of workforce growth required to meet patient need and relies too heavily on assumptions about the current state of NHS services, productivity and technology that are not borne out of frontline experience. In particular, the assumptions about the role of AI and digital technologies risk overstating near-term productivity gains without sufficient evidence or safeguards. We are also concerned that the projected shift from hospital to community, may not be a shift so much as the opening of a new market, again challenging assumptions. This will leave the system and staff without a sufficiently clear and deliverable plan for adapting the workforce to meet future demand.
This has been compounded by a lack of meaningful engagement with professional organisations, trade unions and the wider sector in developing the plan. While we recognise that a consultation process was undertaken, there has been little meaningful engagement since including the expected growth recommendations. This risks a final plan that does not fully reflect the pressures staff face daily or the practical requirements of delivering safe, effective care.
Across the healthcare workforce, organisations are reporting persistent shortages, growing demand, rising complexity and an ageing population, which creates conditions that are increasingly unsafe and unsustainable.
Given the significance of this plan and your recent appointment, we urge you to pause publication and take the opportunity to reset and re-engage. Without this, the plan risks proceeding without the confidence of those essential to its delivery.
A short pause would allow for meaningful engagement with professional bodies, trade unions and system partners, and ensure critical issues are properly addressed. This would ensure the plan is credible, deliverable and capable of commanding broad support across the health and care system.
In particular, we believe the new workforce plan must:
- Be fully funded and include the level of modelling detail needed to establish investment costs, based on a robust assessment of current and projected population health needs.
- Ensure that there is a clear plan to train and deliver the right number of staff with the right skill mix, in the right place both regionally and by sector, recognising the distinct expertise of each profession and importance of defined roles to multidisciplinary team working.
- Analyse current workforce shortfalls across professions and specialties, and ensure that modelling is not based on an assumption that the current workforce is what we currently require.
- Recognise the impact that trends, such as a move to less than full-time working, will have for workforce planning.
- Include in the future workforce model the workforce required to get existing services, where required, running a seven-day extended hours service, to optimise their effectiveness and efficiency.
- Outline the opportunities and implications of introducing AI and digital tools, providing reassuring safeguards to protect staff and patients, whilst aiding improvements in productivity and information sharing.
- Include appropriately bold, deliverable policies and mechanisms to actually deliver ambition.
- Ensure that international recruitment is conducted ethically, sustainably and in compliance with the WHO Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health Personnel.
This is a pivotal moment. Moving ahead without addressing these issues risks eroding confidence and constraining delivery of the Government’s growth mission and NHS reform programme. Taking time now to strengthen it will deliver a robust, actionable strategy– one that supports staff, improves patient outcomes and delivers lasting change.
We stand ready to work with you and the Department to help shape an evidence-based workforce plan that meets the needs of patients and staff alike.
Nursing leader warns collapsing nurse growth and rising complexity a ‘deadly mix’ for patients - 18 May 2026
According to principal projection data for England by the Office of National Statistics, the number of people in England aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 19% between 2026 and 2036, or 1.1 million people.
According to workforce statistics from NHS England, the number of staff in the NHS in England grew by 1,200, the lowest annual growth since March 2012-2013. Analysis was based on comparing consecutive 12 month periods to 31 March.
